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But the experience of other countries, including from other regions such as Venezuela , shows that the process remains difficult and the prospects uncertain. Strengthening government governance and economic management capacity, while improving transparency and accountability, are critical to generating broad-based development benefits from energy exports.
Creating strong markets and reducing distortions to support non-oil economic activity are additional keys to transforming energy exports into sound development. Many developing countries have enjoyed major economic gains over the past 15 years that are changing the energy landscape. In part powered by this growth, these countries are using ever-increasing amounts of energy to fuel their growing local consumption of goods and services as part of an impressive economic and social development process that is moving entire populations out of poverty toward prosperity. In response to this emerging dynamic, the energy-for-development discourse needs to shift from its historical focus on energy exports to the opportunities and challenges present in the growing domestic energy use of developing countries.
The developing world has seen significant economic growth and reduction in poverty since Other factors also point to important development gains over this period. Various social indicators improved significantly since , such as life expectancy, which rose from 65 years to 70, and secondary school enrollment rates, which increased by 33 percent. These changes have been paralleled by a dramatic increase in the size of the middle class, potentially in the order of one billion or so over the past ten years,  with a substantial increase in purchasing power that has accompanied economic growth.
At the same time, the economies of the largest developing countries are increasingly being directed toward domestic consumption rather than exports. Even while exports from developing countries have increased in absolute terms over the past decade, they are being outstripped by a larger increase in GDP and increasing domestic consumerism as reflected, for example, in the previously mentioned higher levels of Final Consumption Expenditure , and their energy consumption is following in tow.
As described earlier in Section B, economic growth in developing countries has been accompanied by increases in energy consumption figure 2. Figure 3. Developing and developed country energy demand: , , and projected . In addition, more energy-intensive forms of consumption are expanding, such as car ownership. It is this combination of households, businesses, and governments that is driving the growing demand for energy to support increasing domestic consumption of goods and services -- and it is this domestic consumption that is at the core of an impressive economic and social development process which is moving entire populations out of poverty toward prosperity.
Using all that energy in a sound, efficient, and sustainable manner presents both opportunities and challenges. Helping developing countries to figure out how to do so is a key emerging pillar of the energy for development effort.
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Governments will need support in designing, implementing and evaluating them. The energy mix of this demand will have multiple and varied impacts on countries. From pollution concerns regarding diesel use as opposed to electric vehicles, to the combustion of domestic coal versus imported natural gas for heating, different fuels present different attributes. Moreover, the source of the use will affect the type of fuel demanded.
For example, while air conditioning services which are projected to increase substantially across emerging economies are powered by electricity, which in turn can involve renewables or fossil fuel generation, heat for industrial processes has traditionally involved the combustion of fossil fuels. Passenger vehicles another area of projected substantial growth have predominantly run on oil products, although electric vehicles are becoming more popular.
In addition, demand is intertwined with supply; for example, supply-side aspects such as the cost and availability of particular fuels can affect the nature of the demand e. Developing countries are facing multiple challenges in their efforts to secure a sufficient supply of energy to satisfy their growing demand.
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Meeting this demand requires that developing countries acquire an unprecedented level of additional energy resources. In doing so, they will have to make various strategic choices, including a which fuels to provide, b the amount of domestic production and imports, and c the type of energy production and delivery infrastructure. These choices will be heavily influenced by various exogenous and endogenous factors, such as the availability of resources, costs, policy preferences e.
In order to meet the growing demand of the past 15 years, developing countries have significantly increased their domestic production capacity. For example, while coal power generation capacity can be expected to plateau soon,  China is projected over the next 15 years to expand its renewables power generation capacity by nearly , MW mostly in solar and wind and to grow its gas capacity by more than , MW. A similar process is taking place around the developing world.
Developing countries have also been increasing imports in order to augment the amount of energy they provide to their economies. Developing countries will face a variety of choices in securing more and more energy resources and their decisions will affect a variety of economic and social factors, including employment, balance of payments, currency exchange rates, and local environmental conditions. Mobilizing the funding to build the new infrastructure needed to produce and deliver this energy will have important budgetary and other economic impacts.
Choosing between renewables and coal for electricity generation will have local health, system operation, and other development impacts. Centralized power generation and the attendant transmission network can require more land than decentralized generation, while the acreage needed for utility-scale renewables power plants is often larger than for fossil fuel ones. The choice between more power plants and more energy efficiency will have commercial implications for differing businesses. There will be major employment, environmental, health and other impacts that flow from all these choices.
How much additional oil, electricity and other forms of energy developing countries will actually require to support their continued development is difficult to project with precision, but the need for dramatically more is clear. The choices these countries make in procuring this energy will ripple through their economies and beyond. Growing developing country energy demand will have global ramifications, especially around efforts to address climate change; limiting global temperature increase to 2oC or well below 2oC will require dramatically reducing emissions at a global level.
Historically, as developing countries increased their energy consumption, their CO2 emissions also increased see figure 4. With energy demand expected to increase going forward, developing nations need to take steps to limit emissions. Helping these countries to promote their economic and social development and to create prosperity for their populations while reducing emissions is central to ensuring that the energy-for-development effort is sound and sustainable. Moreover, climate change can adversely affect the supply and security of the energy needed to support future economic growth in developing countries.
Adaptation measures, such as strengthening the resilience of their domestic energy supply systems, is an important and related challenge for developing countries. In addition, the expansion of the energy systems in developing nations will require massive investments to be made in these countries, with important impacts on international financial flows. While LNG shipping and gas pipeline patterns traditionally headed toward industrialized countries, increasingly, this trade will flow to developing countries, such as China and India.
Over the last 25 years, about 2. However, the large number of people that still lack access to electricity, as well as the 2. Recognizing the important development benefits that energy can provide, the UN adopted universal energy access as the seventh SDG.
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