Today, the once-dynamic Japanese and Korean economies are sluggish, and even China shows signs of losing steam. Perkins investigates whether this is a regional phenomenon or typical of all economies at this stage of development. His inquiry reminds us that the uncharted waters of China's vast economy make predictions of its future performance speculative at best.
Reischauer Lectures 13 By Dwight H. Perkins Harvard University Press, , pp. In Japan, for example, the DPJ, an opposition party, won the past election, pledging to give all farmers direct subsidies, thereby undermining the Japanese Government policies to limit the recipients of direct subsidies to those farmers with capacity and strong will to sustain agriculture in the years to come.
It seems to me that the ruling party, the LDP, is trying to cope with this situation. It may happen that the ruling party, the LDP, is tempted to do the similar policies. In other words, the kind of what is going down there with agricultural policy can be called the competitive protection between the LDP and the DPJ rather than the competitive liberalization.
Here in this great country, the wind might be blowing to the direction of more protection. Last month I visited China twice right after the Party Congress. Over there, there seemed to be a unanimous chorus to the effect that farmers are important, which I have never heard before. Up until before the Party Congress, it was said that since farmers were not well represented in the People's Congress as well as in the Cabinet Meeting in the Government.
The Chinese Government did not have to listen to farmers voices. This might have been why Zhu Rongi, former Prime Minister of China, could take the courageous policies to expose Chinese industries, including agriculture, to the foreign competition through participating in the WTO and committing FTAs with other countries. Now, whether or not China can maintain same agricultural policies remains to be seen after the Party Congress with a chorus, "farmers are important.
However, the hurdles, as I mentioned above, against the creation of these FTAs are getting higher and higher. Therefore, through our discussion today, it might be more than happy if we find out the wisdoms which will be able to address these new circumstances. Attendees: Staff from regional and functional bureaus of the U. Department of Energy. Attendees: Samuel W. Bodman, U. Attendees: Ms. Attendees: Key thinkers in international economics and Asia affairs, media and scholars.
Foundations and Strategies
Wednesday, October 4, depart from Washington, D. Thursday, October 5, depart Chicago on United Airlines flight Keynote Speaker: Hon. Antonio R. Villaraigosa, Mayor, Ciry of Los Angeles.
Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies | SAIS
Program Chair: Mr. Special Introductions by: Mr. Participants: Japanese study group members US study group members. Saturday, July 8, Morning Session - Session 3 Key topic 3: Meeting the energy challenges faced by the four countries.
EAST ASIAN DEVELOPMENT: Foundations and Strategies | By Dwight H. Perkins
Monday, July 10, Concluding Session - A closed session of study group members. Summary Minutes of July 7 Minutes of July 8. I'd like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Dr. Also I'd like to extend my gratitude to the participants and audience in this conference. He used to be the Ambassador to Japan.
I enjoyed a very good friendship with him. Also, Ambassador McCormick is here. JEF is a non-profit organization whose mission is to disseminate information regarding Japan. For this purpose JEF has been publishing a bi-monthly English magazine by the name of Japan Spotlight since and co-organizing international conferences like this with other organizations of foreign countries.
The first one was held last October to discuss the Chinese economy including the issue of the Renminbi. To reconstruct Iraq Japan has been and will be implementing three measures. Roughly two-thirds of the grants have already been implemented. The second measures is debt forgiveness, debt relief Japan will offer to Iraq. If we include that amount the amount will double. Prime Minister Koizumi told Mr. The fact that Japan has engaged in the three issues is itself clear evidence that Japan is cooperating with the U. The purpose of this conference is to find how we can cooperate with each other in implementing these measures and what else Japan and the U.
For example, if the U. Likewise there may be scope for American companies to participate in Japanese projects. If we can come up with some specific ideas like this through our discussion today it would be highly appreciated. Once again, thank you very much indeed for co-organizing and participating in this conference, and especially my gratitude goes to Ambassador Yanai who has come all the way from Tokyo with me yesterday and he is now a professor at the Chuo University.
Thank you very much indeed. Participants May 26, List. Chinese challenges the currency issues.
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And regarding the development of Chinese economy, I think everybody agreed that, for the time being, Chinese economy would continue to grow. There was a kind of consensus on this point. However, there are many challenges China is going to face. There are so many challenges that I cannot remember every one of them, so I came up with an easy way to remember.
This is an alphabetical order. A is appreciation of the Renminbi. B is bad loans. C is corruption, although it was not mentioned. D is deflation, which seems to be almost over, but as well as democratization necessity. And E is environmental issues, including the necessity of water, and the avoiding of desertification. Enterprises owned by state might also be a challenge. And F is fiscal deficit. G is gap between city and rural areas. And H is Household Registration Act, which was not necessarily mentioned, but this is important issue.
As you know well, in China, there is a special law called the "Household Registration Act". This law prohibits, in principle, the movement of people from rural areas to urban areas, or vice versa, unless they have jobs and houses in their destination. Because of this law, factory managers in the coastal areas, such as Shenzhen do not allow workers from rural areas to work for more than three years in general. Therefore, those workers have to quit and return to their homes in rural areas.
The factory managers then hire new workers from rural areas at the same wages as they were paying to the former workers. This mechanism explains why wages have remained so low in the Chinese economy. However, because of the low productivity of agriculture due to the excessive farmer population, as the result of this law, and because of the Chinese people's desire for more freedom, this law has started to be relaxed in some cities, and in such cities, the wages have started going up.
This is another challenge.
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China might lose one of the most attractive points - low wage rate in the near future. I is Islam power in the west of China. There is an Islam group working there. And J is justice system, which was mentioned by Mr. And this is number 10, so I can go on like this, but I will stop here. And regarding currency issues, there are interesting discussions. But I think everybody agreed with the idea, with the necessity of stopping or abandoning a fixed rate system, fixed rate exchange rate system.
However, what matters turned out to be the timing. And if we abandon fixed exchange rate system, then we have to either float, or theoretically speaking, they have to adopt a floating system. However, as Mr. Meyer pointed out, the Chinese people are saying now, of course we will go to floating system in the future, not now, not soon.
And because they are just fighting against deflation, so they don't want to invite another deflationary element into their economy, which is floating system. And in addition to this, they are very busy to be trying to comply with the WTO obligation, so it is not the time for them to change their currency system. In addition to this, as Mr. Kuroda pointed out, leads and lags might be there if they keep fixed rate system, but if they go to a floating system, all of a sudden then shock wave might come by overshooting. Then what should they do? The other alternative would be just to revalue, one-time appreciation.
But if fixed system, pegging system is wrong, then how about another pegging system? Is it okay? If, theoretically speaking, pegging system is wrong because of Chinese necessity to depend upon the American monetary policy, depend upon FED policy, or Chinese unilateral decision, judgment, it's no good to keep fixed rate system.
Then another pegging system, which is the result of revaluation, should also be no good theoretically. So where should we go? However, although theoretically speaking, revaluation might not be good, in the practical world, this might be okay to head-off the protectionistic sentiment, especially in the congress. There was such an opinion. However, more practical opinion would be that a crawling pegging system might be better than just a simple revaluation, because simple revaluation would invite further revaluation.
So there were different opinions as to the measures to change this system after the abandoning fixed rate system. However, the direction of changing this system was agreed almost unanimously, and they agreed about -- almost agreed that now is the timing for China to change.
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